Market Commentary: Fourth Quarter 2008

Financial markets went from bad to worse throughout most of the year.  The credit crisis bled over into nearly every sector bringing market anxiety into uncharted territory.  U.S. government intervention started in the financial-services sector and has been moving into other sectors, including the automotive industry and beyond.

On top of falling in each of the first three quarters of the year, the market, as represented by the S&P 500 Index, dropped a staggering 22% in the fourth quarter alone, bringing the total decline to 37% for the year.  Bonds were up generally in the quarter, while our commodity benchmark fell over 30% during the quarter.

A short recap of some year-end observations:

There was no place to hide for stocks.  All of the market-cap and style indexes were down – in the low to high 20% range in the fourth quarter alone.

Bonds diverge.  U.S. Treasuries posted positive returns for the year while corporate bonds gave us negative returns.  This hasn’t happened in over 25 years.

The commodity bear market continues.  Our benchmark commodity index ended up down over 33% for the year, primarily due to tumbling commodity prices during the second part of the year.

After an extraordinary and painful year, 2009 begins with the economy still sliding, credit markets under stress and asset prices at very low levels.  However, while the markets and the economy may face a long road back, we know from experience that the economy will, in time, regain its strength and that the markets will reflect this strength.  Logical and financial advice has never been more important, and we will continue to do what we can to help.

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