Quarterly Market and Investment Strategy, Third Quarter, 2009

ibbotsonqtrlycommentary_sep2009

 Macroeconomic Conditions

Data from a number of countries have provided an improving picture of the world economy.  As Credit Suisse’s chief economist Neal Soss noted, the world economy is doing better than it was doing a few months ago, but is still far from doing well.  In other words, almost all macroeconomic variables have stopped their dramatic dive, but only a few have bounced back to normal range.  Most variables still support a weak economy.

Inflation remains in check in most countries, both industirialized and emerging.  Negative inflation in Japan (minus 2.3 percent) and  the United States (minus 1.4 percent) signals that aggregate demand remains weak and pricing is limited; however, a large part of the negative values comes from decreasing energy prices.

United States

Unemployment remains the major problem for the U.S.  Many companies are still laying off workers…

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