Historic Tightening Cycles

Last week, the FOMC reiterated its decision to keep short-term rates low for an extended period of time; however an eventual move toward tighter monetary policy warrants a look at historical tightening cycles.

Since the FOMC started targeting the fed funds rate in the mid-1980s there have been four tightening cycles, each lasting just over two years (on average).  Interest rates have historically moved up during the tightening cycle, but short-term rates have commonly had a sharper move thus helping flatten the yield curve.

In all of these cycles, bond investors have experienced poor or even negative returns.  Now may not be a good time to be overweight bonds.

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