Author Archives: Kaizen Wealth Managment
Equity Returns and Rising Interest Rates
With U.S. Treasury yields rising recently, some investors have become concerned that rising rates could negatively impact equity returns. However, history shows that the impact of rising rates depends on the level of interest rates prevailing at the time. At the current juncture, history suggests that the stock market may not be negatively impacted by [...]
No. 12 seeds over No. 5 seeds in NCAA Tournament
Last week: A March Madness questions: Since expanding to its current 64 team format in 1985, how many No. 12 seeds have upset No. 5 seeds in the first round of the NCAA Men’s basketball tournament? Answer: Since 1985, 12 seeds have upset 5 seeds roughly 30% of the time. Only six 15 seeds have [...]
Treasury Yields Higher
The S&P has surged almost 30% since last October, encouraged by better U.S. economic data and positive developments in Europe (i.e. the LTRO). Nevertheless, the 10-year Treasury yield had remained in a tight range near 2%, prompting us to wonder, “Does the bond market know something the stock market doesn’t?”. As it turns out, perhaps [...]
Consumer Credit Growth
Last week: Consumer credit growth picked up a bit in January from strong student loan demand; how far below the July 2008 peak is consumer credit outstanding? Answer: Outstanding consumer credit is still $70 billion, or about 2.8% below its prior peak. Next week: A March Madness question: Since expanding to its current 64 team [...]