The last few weeks of less than flattering economic data are a reminder that the economy has a long way to go in this recovery.
A great deal of focus has been placed on the U.S. consumer, which amounts to roughly 70% of GDP over the last 50 years, and approximately 48% of the first year past recoveries. But now more than ever, the U.S. consumer is shouldering less of a burden.
Emerging markets share of global consumption has eclipsed that of the U.S. consumer.




Historic Tightening Cycles
Last week, the FOMC reiterated its decision to keep short-term rates low for an extended period of time; however an eventual move toward tighter monetary policy warrants a look at historical tightening cycles.
In all of these cycles, bond investors have experienced poor or even negative returns. Now may not be a good time to be overweight bonds.