Historic Tightening Cycles

Last week, the FOMC reiterated its decision to keep short-term rates low for an extended period of time; however an eventual move toward tighter monetary policy warrants a look at historical tightening cycles.

Since the FOMC started targeting the fed funds rate in the mid-1980s there have been four tightening cycles, each lasting just over two years (on average).  Interest rates have historically moved up during the tightening cycle, but short-term rates have commonly had a sharper move thus helping flatten the yield curve.

In all of these cycles, bond investors have experienced poor or even negative returns.  Now may not be a good time to be overweight bonds.

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Global Consumption Share – % of global consumer spending

The last few weeks of less than flattering economic data are a reminder that the economy has a long way to go in this recovery. 

A great deal of focus has been placed on the U.S. consumer, which amounts to roughly 70% of GDP over the last 50 years, and approximately 48% of the first year past recoveries.  But now more than ever, the U.S. consumer is shouldering less of a burden. 

Emerging markets share of global consumption has eclipsed that of the U.S. consumer.

Source: J.P.Morgan Asset Management
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New Year, New Tax Rules for Retirement Plans

 

A nice reference guide that covers 2010 contribution limits for 401(k)s, 529 college savings plans and other qualified plans, required minimum distribution information and retirement plan rollover rules.

Source:  iShares

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New Client Articles Available

We have added five new Client Articles here.

  • Stretching and IRA
  • Roth IRA vs. Defined Contribution Plans
  • IRA Dos and Don’ts
  • Find the Right IRA in Three Easy Steps
  • The Best Investments for Your IRA

Email info@kaizenwm.com or contact us for a PDF version of any of the above articles.

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Foreign Intrigue

U.S. Stocks with Heavy Foreign Exposure: Company Listed followed by its % of Sales Outside North America

  • Colgate-Palmolive          81
  • Avon Products                77
  • Coca-Cola                          74
  • Autodesk                           72
  • Aflac                                    72
  • Merck & Co.                      70
  • Waters                                70
  • Caterpillar                        66
  • Nike                                     66
  • 3M                                        64
  • Pfizer                                   58
  • Proctor & Gamble          57

You may be surprised by how big your foreign exposure is, or how small your domestic exposure is, when looking at your portfolio of individual securities, or what securities your mutual funds may hold.

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Ibbotson Quarterly Market and Investment Strategy Commentary

Ibbotson’s Quarterly Market and Investment Strategy Commentary is now available for our clients.  For a PDF of this report, please email us at info@kaizenwm.com.

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2009 Net Fund Flows

Despite and impressive run in equities, $375 billion moved into bond funds, and $9 billion exited equity funds.  Our concern is that investor behavior is once again the culprit and this inflow/outflow occurred after the equity pullback early in 2009 – causing this.

Chart: J.P.Morgan Asset Management

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