Market Commentary Q409

Despite the wild ride, investors should toast the markets in 2009

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Investors received welcome relief from the markets rally.  Many areas of the market that fared poorly in 2008 bounced back in 2009.  U.S. equities turned in two of their biggest quarterly returns in over a decade, while corporate bonds had one of their best years ever.  As investors moved up the risk curve, Treasuries suffered one of their worst years in the past two decades.  Also, sovereign creditworthiness remains in the spotlight, as Dubai struggles and Greece received a credit downgrade.  Commodity markets rebounded as well, as investors bet on an economic recovery.

 

email us at info@kaizenwm.com for a complete PDF copy.

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Proposal to Make Educational Savings Benefits Permanent

Senate Finance Ranking Member Chuck Grassley (R-IA) introduced a bill that would make permanent a number of education-related tax relief measures.  Included in the measure were provisions to permanently include the costs of computer technology and Internet access as a qualified higher education expense (now scheduled to expire the end of 2010) and to permit up to four investment changes per year in 529 accounts.  You are currently allowed only two changes in 2009 and is slated to revert back to one after this year.  The bill also hopes to make amendments to the Coverdell educational savings account.

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Opportunities in International Investing

More and more, we are finding it easier to justify our higher allocations to international equities.  Roughly 55% of the investable equity universe, by market cap, is outside of the U.S.  Also, world GDP has outpaced the U.S. GDP every year this decade; moreover, emerging markets have seen average GDP growth since 2000 of 5.9% – compared to 1.8% for the developed economies.  International investing may also be a hedge against a weaker domestic currency.

Emerging GDP

source: J.P.Morgan Asset Management

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Bubbles…Is Gold next?

The WSJ recently published a chart that we thought was worth examining, and then noting here.  The chart draws an excellent comparison between the recent surge in gold prices to previous bubbles of the last decade, giving us a cautionary perspective for those pouring money into gold today:

Gold...Bubble?

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The Power of an Investment Policy Statement

Before we can give appropriate investment advice, we work with our clients to construct a comprehensive Investment Policy Statement (IPS).  Creating an Investment Policy Statement (FPA Press), by Norm Boone and Linda Lubitz Boone, spells out the purpose and benefits of using an Investment Policy Statement:

  • Identifies specific client objectives, risk tolerance, and time horizon.
  • Explains the investment strategy and defines asset-allocation policy.
  • Establishes a process for making investment decisions and guidelines for future decision-making.

The IPS may also serve as a forum for client-advisor communication and moderate influences against making decisions in an emotionally-charged environment, helping to avoid negative investment behavior.  The policy statement may also establish a record of decisions and an objective means of measuring performance, as well as help with monitoring progress.

The information gathering process insures that we raise and discuss all pertinent investment issues.

For a sample Investment Policy Statement, or to discuss your investment process with us, please call 843-577-7701 or email info@kaizenwm.com

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20-year Annualized Returns by Asset Class

20-year period ending 12/31/08. 

S&P 500 Index = 8.4%
Average Investor = 1.9%
The culprit = Investor Behavior

20-year Annualized Returns by Asset Class

source J.P. Morgan Asset Management

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Quarterly Market and Investment Strategy, Third Quarter, 2009

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 Macroeconomic Conditions

Data from a number of countries have provided an improving picture of the world economy.  As Credit Suisse’s chief economist Neal Soss noted, the world economy is doing better than it was doing a few months ago, but is still far from doing well.  In other words, almost all macroeconomic variables have stopped their dramatic dive, but only a few have bounced back to normal range.  Most variables still support a weak economy.

Inflation remains in check in most countries, both industirialized and emerging.  Negative inflation in Japan (minus 2.3 percent) and  the United States (minus 1.4 percent) signals that aggregate demand remains weak and pricing is limited; however, a large part of the negative values comes from decreasing energy prices.

United States

Unemployment remains the major problem for the U.S.  Many companies are still laying off workers…

Please email info@kaizenwm.com for a complete copy of the PDF.

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